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The same stress test, on the coins you actually hold.
Risk X-Ray →What actually moved this week, in plain English.
World →See where this crash stands against every previous one.
Cycle →A standing count of the market’s real bets.
The Real Bet Count is a market-wide index published by CryptoArrow: how many genuinely independent positions sit inside the 20largest tradeable crypto assets. It is computed from market data alone, so it reveals nothing about any person’s holdings, and it is recomputed every day when the nightly price capture lands. As of September 14, 2026, the 20 largest assets moved as about 2.7 independent bets.
The finding the index exists to publish, stated as measured history: diversification across large crypto assets has been thinnest exactly when it was most needed. In the drawdowns on record, correlations rose and the count fell; it recovered as the market did.
Anyone can reproduce this number.
The basket: the 20 largest assets by market value that trade like assets rather than pegs. A minimum-volatility floor removes stablecoins and wrapped tokens mechanically; there is no hand-maintained exclusion list. Assets must have prices on at least 95 percent of days in the window to qualify. Currently excluded by the floor: USDT, USDC, USDS, USDE, DAI, USD1, USDG, PYUSD, BUIDL, RLUSD.
The math: daily log returns over the last 60 days feed a correlation matrix, and the count is the participation ratio of that matrix: the basket size squared, divided by the sum of every squared correlation. A basket of 20 perfectly independent assets reads 20. A basket of 20 copies of the same trade reads 1. Negative correlation counts the same as positive, because two assets pinned to each other in opposite directions are still one shared factor, expressed twice.
The same measurement, applied to a single portfolio instead of the market, is one of the five checks behind the free portfolio risk check. How long the market’s past falls lasted is the Cycle page, and the question this index answers for one person’s holdings is written up under how many real bets are in my crypto portfolio.
What does the Real Bet Count measure?
It measures how many genuinely independent positions sit inside the 20 largest tradeable crypto assets. Coins that move together are one bet wearing several tickers; the index counts the bets, not the tickers. The current reading is about 2.7.
Why is the number so much lower than twenty?
Because most large crypto assets move with Bitcoin most of the time. When daily returns are highly correlated, owning many of them adds tickers without adding independent exposures, and the count reflects that.
How is the Real Bet Count computed?
The basket is the 20 largest assets by market value that trade like assets rather than pegs (a volatility floor removes stablecoins and wrapped tokens mechanically, with no hand-picked list). Daily log returns over a 60 day window feed a correlation matrix, and the count is that matrix's participation ratio: the basket size squared, divided by the sum of every squared correlation. Twenty perfectly independent assets would read 20; twenty copies of the same trade would read 1.
How often does it update?
Daily, when the nightly price capture completes. The reading is recomputed from the newest window of real price history, and the page states the date it was computed for.
Is this investment advice?
No. The index is mechanical analysis of past prices, published for information. It describes market structure and never suggests what to buy, sell, or hold. CryptoArrow is not an investment adviser or broker-dealer.
Can I run the same count on my own portfolio?
Yes, on this page. Type in the coins you hold and the same mathematics reports how many independent bets your own holdings amount to, free and without an account.