Bitcoin has moved in rough four-year cycles: a long climb, a peak, a deep fall, a slow recovery. Here is every past cycle lined up from its own day zero, and where today sits. History, not a forecast.
Thursday, July 23, 2026
Below its record high
-48.0%
High $126,080, 290 days ago
Within the year
Near the low
13% up from the year's low
Market phase
Recovering
Risk moderate
The four-year cycle
Day 825
Began Apr 19, 2024
100 = EACH CYCLE'S OWN PEAK · X = DAYS SINCE CYCLE START
Day 825 of this cycle, down 48% from the high so far.
Every past crash, in numbers
CRASHPEAKBOTTOMFELLROSE TO NEXT TOP
Crash 12012 to 2015
$1,163
$170
-85%
116x
Crash 22016 to 2018
$19,783
$3,122
-84%
22x
Crash 32020 to 2022
$69,044
$15,479
-78%
8x
This cycle2024 to now
$126,080
?
-48%
?
Where a repeat of past cycles would land
~$25k
Down 80%
A deeper crash, in line with past cycles
$66k
Today, down 48%
You are here
~$202k
to ~$328k
A new high
A rebound like recent cycles, roughly 8x to 13x off the low
Hypothetical scenarios drawn from past cycles, not a prediction. Bitcoin could fall further or less, rebound more or less, or not follow history at all. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold anything.
CryptoArrowLoading