CryptoArrowLoadingCryptoArrowLoadingCryptoArrowLoadingEvery past fall is drawn from its own high, in real daily closes. Drop a line at today's age and the three of them sit about 71% below. This one sits 38% below.
Real daily closes, not a drawn shape. The three past cycles from Bitstamp BTC/USD, this cycle from our own nightly capture. Each line is measured against its own cycle's high, so the falls compare directly.
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The same stress test, on the coins you actually hold.
Risk X-Ray →Coins in the same sector tend to move as one. Count how many separate bets you are actually holding.
The Real Bet Count →What actually moved this week, in plain English.
World →The whole argument of this page is time. Not how far Bitcoin falls, which the free risk check measures against your own holdings, but how long the falls have historically lasted:
| Cycle | Peak | Fall | Days down | Back to a new high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 to 2015 | $1,163 (2013-11) | -85% | 410 | about 3 years to a new high (early 2017) |
| 2016 to 2018 | $19,783 (2017-12) | -84% | 363 | about 3 years to a new high (late 2020) |
| 2020 to 2022 | $69,044 (2021-11) | -78% | 376 | about 2.4 years to a new high (early 2024) |
Average fall: about 383 days. Three cycles are a small record and none of this predicts the next one; it is the documented history the acts above draw.
In the three completed cycles on record, the fall from peak to bottom ran 410, 363 and 376 days, an average of about 383 days, or roughly thirteen months. That is the documented record, not a prediction of the current or any future fall.
Peak to bottom, the three completed cycles fell 85%, 84%, 78%. Each fall was followed by a recovery to a new high, taking between roughly two and a half and three years from the previous peak.
Roughly every four years the reward for mining Bitcoin halves. Each completed cycle so far has followed a loose shape around that event: a climb that peaked twelve to eighteen months after the halving, then a fall of a year or so, then a recovery. The page above draws all three on one picture.
No. Three cycles are a small record, the market's structure changes between them, and nothing here forecasts prices. The page documents how long past falls ran and where today sits against that record, which is a description, not a prediction.