How many real bets are in my crypto portfolio?

Coins versus bets

A bet is a position whose outcome is independent of the others. Correlated coins fail that test: their combined value moves as one. Counting bets instead of coins means adjusting the holdings for measured correlation, which is computed from real daily returns over the trailing year.

The Real Bet Count index

CryptoArrow publishes The Real Bet Count as a recurring, dated index: how many genuinely independent bets sit inside a portfolio of the top coins by market capitalisation at each edition. Because each edition is dated, the history shows how crypto's internal correlation tightens and loosens over time.

The current Real Bet Count and its history.

Measure your own portfolio

The free Portfolio Risk X-Ray computes the effective-bets read for the exact tickers and weights you enter, alongside concentration, correlation and the historical crash figure.

Count your portfolio's real bets free.

What counts as a real bet?

A position whose returns do not simply track the rest of the portfolio. The measurement is mechanical: pairwise correlations from a year of daily returns, folded into an effective number of independent positions. No narrative or opinion enters the count.

How is this different from just counting my coins?

Coin count treats every ticker as independent. The real-bet measurement checks that assumption against recorded price behaviour, and for most crypto portfolios the measured number of independent bets is far below the ticker count.