Methodology

How every number on CryptoArrow is computed

CryptoArrow publishes four computed metrics. Each one is a fixed formula over public market data, documented here in full: the inputs, the weights, the thresholds, the grade bands and the things it cannot do. Every metric is descriptive. None of them predicts a price or tells anyone what to do.

The metrics

  • Portfolio Health Score. One number, 0 to 100, for the structure of a portfolio. Five weighted checks: same-bet, concentration, sector spread, stability, volatility.
  • What's Holding This Up. A per-asset read of the layers of value beneath a coin, with fragile layers capped so they can never render as large as structural ones.
  • Regime Fit Score. How closely a portfolio's shape matches the shape the current market regime has historically rewarded. Four components, three status bands.
  • Narrative Maturity Score. Where each of the ten tracked crypto sectors sits on its adoption curve: Dormant, Awakening, Building, Mainstream or Cooling.

Why this page exists

A number you cannot audit is a number you should not trust. Anyone can publish a score between 0 and 100 and call it risk. The only thing that separates a real measurement from a decoration is whether the method is written down, including the parts of it that are weak.

So each page below states the formula, and then states its own limitations plainly. Where a value is an estimate rather than a measurement, it says so. Where a check is a heuristic rather than a fitted model, it says that too.

What none of these metrics do

  • They do not recommend buying, selling or holding any asset.
  • They do not forecast the price of anything.
  • They do not know anything about you: not your cost basis, income, tax position, time horizon or risk tolerance.
  • They do not cover assets you have not entered, or assets outside the tracked market-data universe.

Questions

Does CryptoArrow tell me what to buy or sell?

No. Every metric on the platform is descriptive. It reports weights, correlations, market data and dated facts. It never produces a buy, sell, trim, rotate or rebalance instruction. CryptoArrow is a publisher of impersonal analytics, not an adviser.

Where does the underlying data come from?

Live and historical market data for the top coins by market capitalisation, captured daily into a price-history spine. Correlations and beta to Bitcoin are computed from real daily returns over the trailing year, with a documented fallback model for coins that have too little history to measure.

Are the scores personalised to me?

No, and that is deliberate. The same portfolio shape in the same market produces the same score for every user. The metrics know nothing about cost basis, income, tax position, time horizon or risk tolerance. They measure the portfolio, not the investor.

Do the scores predict returns?

No. None of them forecast price. The Health Score measures structure, the durability read measures what an asset's value currently rests on, the Regime Fit Score measures alignment with a historical pattern, and the Narrative Maturity Score reports a sector's current stage. A high score on any of them does not mean an asset or portfolio will rise.

Mechanical analysis. Not investment advice. See the Terms of Service for the full disclaimers.